This article appeared in the News Letter of 9 September 2016
With Northern Ireland’s healthy population growth in recent years, the province is set to lose only one of its existing 18 seats.
Additionally, some large differences in electorate size have developed, and the Boundary Commissioners are required to keep these variances below 5%.
No doubt, all the parties will challenge the commissioners’ proposals during the next phase of the review, but the concentration of unionist voters in greater Belfast and County Antrim is now starting to make First Past The Post harmful to Unionists.
Belfast, reduced to three seats, could fail to return a Unionist MP for the foreseeable future.
Belfast South West covers Sinn Féin heartlands from Ballymurphy to the Lagmore Estate, while in the area from the M1 to the Lagan, votes are spread evenly across all the parties, making it difficult for a strong challenger to emerge.
Belfast North West is massively improved for Sinn Féin, losing Rathcoole and more Unionist parts of Glengormley.
While it gains the whole Greater Shankill, it also gains three Sinn Féin fortress wards along the Falls.
